Record Detail

We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental
conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a
complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and
shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an
accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within the condition of
post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to
the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much
focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic
anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities
- broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there
is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy
system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation
to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is
increasingly a societal and even cultural issue - above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden
events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the
world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these
transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented.
Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based
society, are explored.