UPA Perpustakaan Universitas Jember

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

Eléonore Fauré - Personal Name
Yevgeniya Arushanyan - Personal Name
Elisabeth Ekener - Personal Name
Sofiia Miliutenko - Personal Name
Göran Finnveden - Personal Name

Future scenarios are often used to address long-term challenges characterised by uncertainty and complexity, as they can
help explore different alternative future pathways. Scenarios can therefore be a useful tool to support policy and guide
action towards sustainability. But what sustainability aspects are put forward in scenarios and how are they assessed? This
paper aims to explore how to assess future scenarios, categorised according to Börjeson et al. (Futures 38:723–739, 2006)
i.e. predictive, explorative and normative scenarios. By conducting a literature review and a document analysis, we map
tools and methods that are currently used to assess environmental and social sustainability aspects in scenarios. We also
draw on experiences from methods for impact assessments of Swedish municipal comprehensive plans, which can be
considered as future scenarios. We identify whether some sustainability aspects are less recurrent than others in the
reviewed assessments or even left out. We find that there is no single tool that can be used to assess scenarios. Some
quantitative tools based on databases may be more suitable for assessing scenarios within a shorter time horizon, whereas
qualitative assessment methods might better fit the purpose of long-term transformative scenarios. We also find that
assessment frameworks may be useful to guide the assessment, as to what its intended purpose is and which sustainability
aspects to include. Finally we discuss whether further assessment tools are needed in order to include a wider array of
potential environmental or social consequences of the content of scenarios.

EB00000002427K Available

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NONE

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Subject(s)

Future scenarios
Backcasting
Sustainability assessments
Assessment methods
Assessment tools
Environmental
. Social

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Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

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NPP. 3509212D1000001

Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective

Eléonore Fauré - Personal NameYevgeniya Arushanyan - Personal NameElisabeth Ekener - Personal NameSofiia Miliutenko - Personal NameGöran Finnveden - Personal Name

Series Title

Call Number

Publisher

Collation

Language

ISBN/ISSN

Classification

Content Type

Media Type

Carrier Type

Edition

Subject(s)

Specific Detail Info

Statement of Responsibility

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Eléonore Fauré - Personal Name
Yevgeniya Arushanyan - Personal Name
Elisabeth Ekener - Personal Name
Sofiia Miliutenko - Personal Name
Göran Finnveden - Personal Name