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Deterministic modeling in scenario forecasting: estimating the effects of two public policies on intergenerational conflict

Addolorata Marasco 1 - Personal Name
Alessandro Romano 2 - Personal Name

In this article, we use a nonautonomous Lotka Volterra model to study the intergenerational conflict within an aging American society between 1974 and 2014. The main findings are that (1) the intensity of the competition among age cohorts is constantly increasing and has crowded out any mutualism, that (2) the elderly have improved their economic status relative to other age cohorts, and that (3) this trend is expected to intensify in the forecasted future (2014–2030). On this background, we test the impact of two stylized policies and of different demographic trends—for a total of 4 alternative sce-narios—on the level of intergenerational conflict, and on the performances in terms of
income of the relevant age cohorts in the forecasted period. The scenario analysis reveals that without policy intervention it is unlikely that society will revert to mutualistic inter-actions in the coming fifteen years. At the same time, policy reforms that are sufficiently far-reaching to interrupt the shift of resources from the young to the elderly might face significant political opposition. Politicians that are interested in preventing a gerontocracy and the explosion of intergenerational conflict have to find ways to lessen the opposition of the elderly to policy reforms that are in the interest of younger generations.

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Intergenerational conflict
Lotka–Volterra model
Competitive roles
Public policy
Scenario method
Integration of qualitative
quantitative data
Sensitivity analysis

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NPP. 3509212D1000001

Deterministic modeling in scenario forecasting: estimating the effects of two public policies on intergenerational conflict

Addolorata Marasco 1 - Personal NameAlessandro Romano 2 - Personal Name

Series Title

Call Number

Publisher

Collation

Language

ISBN/ISSN

Classification

Content Type

Media Type

Carrier Type

Edition

Subject(s)

Specific Detail Info

Statement of Responsibility

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Addolorata Marasco 1 - Personal Name
Alessandro Romano 2 - Personal Name