This study addresses the difficulties in the transition of advanced market
economies towards environmentally—and especially climate-compatible—development
paths. It is assumed that standard economic concepts as well as instrument
recommendations for treating these problems are not sufficient because agents, markets
and political regulation are stylized in a way that neglects essential features of
complexity that are at stake. Taking the case of electricity production based on nonrenewable
resources, this contribution (1) addresses the specificities of this branch of
production, (2) considers the relevant industrial dynamics as well as the regulatory status
quo in this context, and finally (3) makes an assessment of selected instruments as
regards their ecological effectivity and economic efficiency. Against the background
of a given regulation path characterized by command and control regulation, the European
emission trading system, and transitions in the German energy system, possible
future regulation paths and their economic and ecological impacts are specified and
evaluated by using agent-based scenario analyses.

• gent-Based Analysis of Industrial Dynamics and Pathsof Environmental Policy: The Case of Non-renewable Energy Production in Germany